Student Number 999 04 4487
Friday November 1st, 2002
Political Science 100 9:00am
Alex L. Avila, Instructor
World War Four
On September 11th, 2001 four planes were hijacked and flown into a field in Pennsylvania, the Pentagon in Washington D.C., and both towers of the World Trade Center in New York City. In Samuel P. Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations,” in Perspectives on American Foreign Policy: Readings and Cases, he would argue that that act of war resulted in the clash of civilizations between the Western and the Islamic worlds. “The fault lines of civilizations will be the battle lines of the future” (Huntington, 2000, 297). Future history will doubtless prove him correct as today’s conflicts are quickly turning into holy wars. When the ‘end of history’ looms near, we will find that it will come down to the Western Powers (US, EU, Australia, and Israel), India, and Japan verses virtually everyone else: the Arab nations, China, Southeast Asia, and probably Africa). It has already begun.
Back in the good old days of the Cold War, things were really easy. There were only three main groups: the capitalists, the communists, and the rest of the world who were being manipulated by the previous two groups or ignored. You could be born in a democratic society and become a communist and back again without too much difficulty. The reverse was also true, though a bit more perilous. The society you were born in had little to do with the world in which you lived in. “In class and ideological conflicts, the key question was ‘Which side are you on?’ and people could and did changes sides” (299). Heck, during this time in the Baltic states, the Bosnians, Croats, and Serbs were slowly forgetting their ethnic hatreds of the past thousand years and were gaining a sense of nationalism. That is, until the USSR fell and the dual system with it. Suddenly, the West was the dominant super-power, and its culture wormed its way across the globe, unopposed.
That is, until some parts of the world became disgusted at the effects of Westernization was having upon them. They began to reject it. Sometimes it happens because of foreign policy, as in the case of the Palestinians. Or because we had become rich and powerful and refused to help those in need, as some parts of Africa think. Lastly, it may be because they find our values totally alien to their way of thinking. ”Western ideas of individualism, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state, often have little resonance in Islamic, Confucian, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist or Orthodox cultures” (301). They then reject the notion of joining the Western world in favor of returning to their basic, non-western values. They then decide to put up the borders to keep themselves isolated from the West (Saudi Arabia), try to work with the West (Japan), or build up their armies to one day overthrow the West (Iraq, and possibly China). Regardless, “Those countries that for a reason of culture and power do not wish to, or cannot, join the West compete with the West by developing their own economic, military, and political power” (302).
Now the world is divided not by ideology but by civilization. By civilization, Huntington means “…the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species” (298). You are born into a civilization, and it is much, much harder to integrate into another one. There have been thousands of civilizations across the ages, but as of right now about seven or eight major civilizations are taking center stage. “These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and possibly African civilization “ (298). Huntington is ambiguous on Africa because several parts of the continent have degenerated into tribal conflicts, oblivious to the rest of the world. Now these several civilizations are mostly multiple nation-states, feeling similar to each other generally if not linguistically and culturally. A notable exception to this is Japan, an economic superpower, the shining star of the non-Western world. Alone of all other Asian countries, Japan was able to modernize without becoming Westernized.
Of course, at some point these civilizations will come into conflict. The potential for future conflict is already here. Over a million troops are stationed on the border of nuclear equipped India and Pakistan in the region of Kashmir. North Korea has recently admitted to having a nuclear weapons program, giving Japan and South Korea many problems. And the little island of Taiwan may trigger a war between the United States and China. The Islamic world is already at war with the West on some level. Radical Islamic fundamentalists have performed terrorist acts on the United States, Israel, France, and Australia to date. A jihad, or holy war, has been declared against the West by Osama bin Laden. Finally, after September 11th, the West fought back. Some semblance of order has been restored to Afghanistan. The next step of ousting Saddam from Iraq is soon to happen. Iran and Pakistan won’t be far behind. Eventually Saudi Arabia will be overthrown and opened to the West and the Islamic civilization will be absorbed or destroyed by the West.
However, there is a problem. The Islamic world has allied itself to the Confucian civilization. That means China, North Korea, and much of southeast Asia will rise up and cooperate with the Islamic nation-states if World War Four ever breaks out. “[T]he Confucian-Islamic connection… has emerged to challenge Western interest, values, and power” (302). The quickest ways to bring about this clash of civilizations are the China-Pakistan and Israel-India alliances. China owns part of Kashmir, and has long had a close relationship with its neighbor Pakistan. Despite the current strategic alliance with the U.S.-lead coalition, Pakistan has old cultural ties to now communist China, and would side with them over the U.S without hesitation. Both have nuclear weapons. Israel and India, being the only democracies and non-Islamic nation-states in the Middle East region, have some sort of strategic defense pact. India is a nuclear power and Israel’s status is all but official. If and when Pakistan (Islam) and Indian (Hindu) have their first and last nuclear war, they will drag the Confucian (China) and Western (Israel) civilizations into it and begin the end of history. Mutually assured destruction at its finest.
The Federation like that on Star Trek that many dream and hope for is a distant hope. “The very notion that their could be a ‘universal civilization’ is a Western idea, directly at odds with the particularism of most Asian societies and their emphasis on what distinguishes one people from another” (301). The world may be shrinking, but it is not that small. Yet. There the hope that if we survive the impending clash of civilizations, we will outgrow our petty differences and learn to work together. But that day has not come. If the West does not fall in war, it may be overrun from within. As we speak, dozens of Latin Americans are streaming across the US-Mexican border, infiltrating our civilization. If we are not careful, we may be overrun by the masses as Romans were, their civilization falling not to superior armies but superior numbers. Yet to ultimately survive civilizations that seek our annihilation, the West is faced with terrible choice: utterly obliterate civilizations thru total destruction or absorption; ether way those ways of life are lost.
Huntington is right. The next great conflicts are going to be on the borders of civilizations, not nation-states. Where is the most war-torn region in the World? Most would think of the Middle East, especially now. And it makes sense, since the region not only connects the continents of Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Indian sub-continent; it is the interaction point of the West, Islam, Confucian, Slavic-Orthodox, and Hindu civilizations. Peace in the Middle East would truly be a world peace, as all of these civilizations would have to get along with each other simultaneously. It is a worthy, albeit extremely difficult goal. But as we are all stuck on this small planet together, it is definitely worth a try.
Bibliography
Huntington, Samuel P. “The Clash of Civilizations?”. In Perspectives on
American Foreign Policy: Readings and Cases. Edited by Bruce W.
Jentleson. W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. New York 2000, pp. 297-304
